CIU Faculty Member Assist. Prof. Dr. Ozker Kocadal commented on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Crisis in Ukraine: Russia’s military intervention and international order
Cyprus International University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Political Sciences and International Relations faculty member Assist. Prof. Dr. Özker Kocadal said the Ukraine crisis turned into an armed conflict, in other words, into a war when Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine. Russia’s primary aim is to take control of the capital city Kyiv and thus establish a pro-Russian regime.
Kocadal also said it was yet not possible to foresee whether Russian troops would remain in Ukraine or there would be other alternatives to follow, adding “the determining factors at this point would be how the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainians would oppose the Russian attacks, whether the Western countries would continue their support, and the effectiveness of the economic sanctions that the EU and USA are planning to impose.”
The consequences of the sanctions to be enforced by the Western powers are expected to extend over a period of time, reported Assist. Prof. Dr. Özker Kocadal. He also said “these sanctions are expected to lessen the support Putin receives from the Russians.”
Kocadal also emphasized the fact that Russia has a lot of experience in sanctions and has gained considerable immunity against them. In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, similar sanctions were imposed on Russia by the western powers but they proved to be futile.
According to Kocadal, this war launched by Russia could be a threat and an opportunity to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO now has to consider increasing its military measures in its Eastern European members, as well as in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania who are neighboring countries with Ukraine.
The Ukrainian crisis also offers a strategic opportunity within NATO. “The member states would feel it a need to collaborate more. Though Russia was aiming to hinder the relations of NATO with Ukraine and other eastern bloc countries with this operation, this attempt could yield unexpected results,” expressed Kocadal.
Stating that the developments regarding natural gas also increased the importance of the hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean, Kocadal added that these resources may be quickly presented to the European market via Turkey. Dr Kocadal also said, “This would undoubtedly force Western countries and especially the EU to find a solution to the Cyprus problem.”
Kocadal explained that the disagreements between Russia and Ukraine were not the sole cause of the military operation launched by Russia against Ukraine; from the Russian perspective, this is beyond the Ukraine-NATO relations, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk problems but a continuation of the ongoing contention with the West. Russia also targets the “the liberal international order” that serves Western interests.”